Head Game | Illumination

Inspired by Adair's physics-based analysis, Stadler immersed himself in that difficult-to-understand branch of science. Adair's book also led the young professor to examine the conventional psychological wisdom about baseball. Like Adair's conclusions, Stadler's findings both shatter and confirm, depending on the specific piece of conventional wisdom.

The Psychology of Baseball is organized, most generally, around two broad principles: the skills needed to play major league baseball and the variability in performance demonstrated by each pro player. Stadler subdivides his research among the categories of hitting, catching and pitching, because the physical skills and the psychological makeup that account for successes in each of these facets of the sport are different. He then devotes a chapter to the methods those in charge of professional baseball teams use to choose the athletes most likely to succeed at the major league level.

Next, Stadler covers "streaks and slumps," which he defines as the differences within the performance of a player or a team over time. If physical conditioning does not vary (and thus can be ruled out as a variable to account for highs and lows), then psychological conditioning must be responsible. With that hypothesis in mind, Stadler explores the never-ending debate about whether athletes really go through hot streaks and cold slumps. The players themselves and their managers sound persuasive when they talk about streaks and slumps. But is their certainty based in fact, in superstition, or in something in between?

Stadler cannot say for sure, of course, because some debates cannot be resolved with 100-percent certainty. But he knows this much: "Simply looking at whether or not an at bat resulted in a hit is to look past how well the ball was hit. A lazy infield pop-up and a line drive that knocks down the third baseman ... both go into the scorebook as outs. So when a ball is put in play, the result depends to some extent on the quality of the contact, and to some extent on luck."

The book's final chapter examines the psychology of those who watch baseball. As fans observe the game, he says, they must use their own cognitive resources to interpret what they see. Sometimes we do this accurately, sometimes not. Stadler seeks to understand which factors "affect the ways we perceive and think about the game."

Stadler's conclusions will likely fascinate and frustrate baseball fans. For instance, most onlookers tend to believe a strikeout demonstrates the mastery of the pitcher and that a home run is the pitcher's fault. Not necessarily so, Stadler says. A strikeout is often no more than the law of averages at work. Home runs can be as random as which way the wind is blowing.

Published by the Office of Research.